Predictors of loss to follow-up in art experienced patients in Nigeria: a 13 year review (2004–2017)

Aliyu, Ahmad; Adelekan, Babatunde; Andrew, Nifarta; Ekong, Eunice; Dapiap, Stephen; Murtala-Ibrahim, Fati; Nta, Iboro; Ndembi, Nicaise; Mensah, Charles; Dakum, Patrick

doi:10.1186/s12981-019-0241-3

AIDS Research and Therapy

Table 3 Univariate and Multivariate analysis of predictors of LTFU

From: Predictors of loss to follow-up in art experienced patients in Nigeria: a 13 year review (2004–2017)

	Univariate (COR)		Multivariate (AOR) n = 156,124
	OR [95% CI]	p	OR [95%CI]	p
Sex
Female	1 [Ref]		1 [Ref]
Male	1.16 [1.136–1.180]	< 0.001	Omitted
Female status
Breastfeeding	1 [Ref]		1 [Ref]
Pregnant	2.11 [1.792–2.477]	< 0.001	1.83 [1.546–2.171]	< 0.001
Not pregnant	3.76 [3.238–4.354]	< 0.001	4.55 [3.893–5.307]	< 0.001
Month of ARV refill
1	1 [Ref]		1 [Ref]
2	0.37 [0.361–0.377]	< 0.001	0.59 [0.573–0.608]	< 0.001
≥ 3	0.68 [0.656–0.696]	< 0.001	1.32 [1.260–1.373]	< 0.001
Region
North^a	1 [Ref]		1 [Ref]
South^b	0.86 [0.843–0.880]	< 0.001	0.69 [0.671–0.712]	< 0.001
Viral load indication
Routine	1 [Ref]		1 [Ref]
Targeted	0.57 [0.526–0.618]	< 0.001	0.44 [0.393–0.487]	< 0.001
Missing	6.06 [5.870–6.256]	< 0.001	3.08 [1.247–7.616]	0.015
Regimen at ART start
Adult 1st line	1 [Ref]		1 [Ref]
Adult 2nd line	0.70 [0.666–0.734]	< 0.001	1.23 [1.146–1.312]	< 0.001
Paeds 1st line	0.87 [0.830–0.909]	< 0.001	1.70 [1.376–2.112]	< 0.001
Paeds 2nd line	0.68 [0.530–0.869]	= 0.002	1.16 [0.707–1.888]	0.564
Viral result
Suppressed	1 [Ref]		1 [Ref]
Unsuppressed	2.67 [2.516–2.828]	< 0.001	4.52 [4.109–4.961]	< 0.001
Duration of ART (month)
≤ 6	1 [Ref]		1 [Ref]
7–12	0.33 [0.324–0.346]	< 0.001	0.423 [0.407–0.443]	< 0.001
13–24	0.30 [0.294–0.313]	< 0.001	0.410 [0.394–0.426]	< 0.001
25+	0.19 [0.184–0.192]	< 0.001	0.246 [0.238–0.253]	< 0.001
Age at LTFU (years)
1–9	1 [Ref]		1 [Ref]	< 0.001
10–14	1.27 [1.156–1.390]	< 0.001	2.990 [2.557–3.496]	< 0.001
15–19	1.40 [1.282–1.537]	< 0.001	13.749 [10.458–18.077]	< 0.001
20–24	1.23 [1.148–1.322]	< 0.001	54.948 [40.407–74.721]	< 0.001
25–49	1.36 [1.282–1.422]	< 0.001	241.574 [176.541–330.565]	< 0.001
50–64	1.44 [1.348–1.528]	< 0.001	487.771 [354.269–671.582]	< 0.001
65+	1.81 [1.666–1.967]	< 0.001	1622.844 [1142.974–2304.185]	< 0.001
Northern regions
North central^c	1 [Ref]		1 [Ref]
North west^d	0.969 [0.944–0.995]	= 0.019	Omitted

[Ref], reference; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; p, p value which is in italics if significant at < 0.05
^aNorth also referred as Northern region: Benue, FCT, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina and Nassarawa
^bSouth also referred as Southern region: Delta, Ondo, Ogun, Osun and Ekiti
^cNorth central: Benue, FCT and Nassarawa
^dNorth west: Kano, Kaduna and Katsina

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ISSN: 1742-6405

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