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Table 1 Predicted 6 month risk of AIDS according to age, current CD4+ cell count and viral load, based on a Poisson regression model

From: Predictors of disease progression in HIV infection: a review

Viral load (copies/mL) Predicted risk (%) at current CD4 count (× 106 cells/L)
Age 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
25 years           
3000 6.8 3.7 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3
10 000 9.6 5.3 3.4 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4
30 000 13.3 7.4 4.7 3.2 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6
100 000 18.6 10.6 6.7 4.6 3.2 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.8
300 000 25.1 14.5 9.3 6.3 4.5 3.3 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.2
35 years           
3000 8.5 4.7 3.0 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
10 000 12.1 6.7 4.3 2.9 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5
30 000 16.6 9.3 5.9 4.0 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7
100 000 23.1 13.2 8.5 5.8 4.1 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.1
300 000 30.8 18.0 11.7 8.0 5.7 4.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.5
3000 10.7 5.9 3.7 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5
10 000 15.1 8.5 5.4 3.6 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7
30 000 20.6 11.7 7.5 5.1 3.6 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.9
100 000 28.4 16.5 10.6 7.3 5.2 3.8 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.3
300 000 37.4 22.4 14.6 10.1 7.2 5.3 4.0 3.1 2.4 1.9
3000 13.4 7.5 4.7 3.2 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6
10 000 18.8 10.7 6.8 4.6 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.8
30 000 25.4 14.6 9.4 6.4 4.6 3.3 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.2
100 000 34.6 20.5 13.3 9.2 6.5 4.8 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.7
300 000 44.8 27.5 18.2 12.6 9.1 6.7 5.0 3.9 3.0 2.4
  1. <2%, risk 2–9.9%, risk 10–19.9%, risk ≥20%
  2. This table is reproduced from Table 4 in [10]