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Table 2 Projected number of maternal, paternal, and double AIDS orphans incurred and averted, per sub-Saharan African country, at year 2020

From: Estimating the impact of expanded access to antiretroviral therapy on maternal, paternal and double orphans in sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2020

  South Africa Uganda Nigeria Kenya Zimbabwe Tanzania Ethiopia Zambia Malawi Cote d'Ivoire
Orphans incurred with universal ART access           
Maternal 1,379,420 379,000 887,810 691,022 286,624 549,876 316,258 413,474 312,314 151,461
Paternal 1,452,297 592,386 1,165,760 913,492 410,784 735,112 421,703 535,465 432,220 241,890
Double 688,762 151,493 201,155 378,776 171,243 233,989 77,547 224,763 126,391 77,932
All 2,258,756 857,842 1,982,969 1,288,338 561,259 1,096,206 693,419 769,052 632,518 325,891
Orphans incurred by sustaining current ART access           
Maternal 2,258,756 567,307 1,413,087 1,175,760 362,142 883,904 497,135 641,775 491,560 224,070
Paternal 1,813,896 735,912 1,501,877 1,238,024 433,892 1,008,982 547,186 663,933 557,547 288,159
Double 940,552 192,112 282,339 503,190 188,051 318,425 98,724 290,848 174,617 91,513
All 3,160,461 1,163,017 2,821,983 2,005,720 648,220 1,641,721 994,221 1,075,967 894,946 435,012
Orphans averted with universal ART access           
Maternal 879,336 188,307 525,277 484,738 75,518 334,028 180,877 228,301 179,246 72,609
Paternal 361,599 143,526 336,117 324,532 23,108 273,870 125,483 128,468 125,327 46,269
Double 251,790 40,619 81,184 124,414 16,808 84,436 21,177 66,085 48,226 13,581
All 901,705 305,175 839,014 717,382 86,961 545,515 300,802 306,915 262,428 109,121