Table 4 Adjusted relative risks (95% confidence intervals) for first-line antiretroviral (ART) effectiveness at 12 and 24 months when assuming best-case (missing as success) and worst-case scenarios (missing as failure) (IPEC cohort, 2000 to 2010)

Age

< 30

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

30-39

1.06 (0.94, 1.19)

1.01 (0.94, 1.09)

1.15 (0.99, 1.33)

> = 40

1.12 (1.00, 1.26)

1.04 (0.97, 1.13)

1.24 (1.07, 1.44)

Gender/Risk category

Women

0.90 (0.82, 0.99)

0.93 (0.87, 1.00)

0.87 (0.77, 0.98)

0.94 (0.84, 1.06)

0.94 (0.87, 1.02)

0.98 (0.84, 1.14)

Heterosexual men

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

MSM

1.02 (0.93, 1.12)

1.03 (0.96, 1.11)

0.98 (0.87, 1.10)

1.11 (0.98, 1.25)

1.08 (0.99, 1.17)

1.05 (0.90, 1.22)

IDU/Other

1.02 (0.89, 1.16)

1.03 (0.94, 1.14)

0.89 (0.75, 1.05)

0.95 (0.79, 1.13)

0.97 (0.87, 1.09)

0.87 (0.70, 1.09)

Education

< 4 years

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

4-8 years

1.07 (0.96, 1.18)

1.05 (0.97, 1.13)

1.05 (0.93, 1.20)

1.13 (0.99, 1.29)

1.06 (0.98, 1.16)

1.18 (1.00, 1.39)

> 8 years

1.13 (1.03, 1.24)

1.08 (1.01, 1.17)

1.16 (1.03, 1.30)

1.14 (1.00, 1.29)

1.07 (0.99, 1.16)

1.21 (1.03, 1.41)

Initial ART regimen

PI-based

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

NNRTI-based

1.17 (1.05, 1.31)

1.09 (1.02, 1.17)

1.21 (1.05, 1.39)

Calendar year of ART initiation

2005-2009

1.25 (1.15, 1.35)

1.14 (1.08, 1.22)

1.34 (1.21, 1.49)

1.14 (1.03, 1.27)

1.11 (1.03, 1.19)

1.08 (0.95, 1.23)

2000-2004

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Started ART in clinical trial

No

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Yes

1.08 (1.01, 1.16)

1.05 (0.99, 1.11)

1.10 (1.00, 1.21)

1.12 (1.02, 1.23)

1.04 (0.98, 1.11)

1.24 (1.10, 1.39)